home studios equipment staff/friends booking/rates for sale forum contact

Potential Apocalypse: Avian Flu

Vote and debate.

Moderators: kerble, Electrical-Staff

Avian flu?

Crap
17
50%
Super-Scared Crap
11
32%
Not Crap (I hope no one votes on this.)
6
18%
 
Total votes : 34

Postby toomanyhelicopters on Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:41 am

[conspiracist speculation]Part of the $7 Billion that Bush just asked congress for (to dedicate to bird-flu shenanigans) will be directed toward *making* a human-to-human strain of it, which will be tested on living populations of foreign people that America deems worthy. Covert ops![/conspiracist speculation]
LVP wrote:If, say, 10% of lions tried to kill gazelles, compared with 10% of savannah animals in general, I think that gazelle would be a lousy racist jerk.
User avatar
toomanyhelicopters
priss
 
Posts: 5080
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 2:58 am

Postby shagboy on Tue Nov 08, 2005 4:22 am

slowriot wrote:normally with viruses, at first the death rate is very high, because only a small sample of the population contracts it.


i think it's actually that a lot of people contract it but don't die from it or get so sick that they need to be hospitalized, so it goes unreported. but i'm definitely not an expert.
User avatar
shagboy
meatball enthusiast
meatball enthusiast
 
Posts: 1287
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:21 am
Location: nebralaska

Postby bumble on Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:29 am

The flu pandemic of 1918 looks like it had smaller outbreaks the year before it. This makes me feel like the events in SE Asia - less than 100 dead (?) instead of millions - aren't very comforting.
User avatar
bumble
Humankind's Greatest Musical Genius
Humankind's Greatest Musical Genius
 
Posts: 4373
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: chicago

Postby bumble on Tue Nov 08, 2005 9:55 am

This is an interesting document: Timeline

Research 14, 15

Research describes reconstruction of the
lethal 1918 pandemic virus, concludes
that this virus was entirely avian, and
finds some similarities with H5N1.


14 Taubenberger JK et al. Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature 2005; 437: 889–93.
15 Tumpey et al. Characterization of the reconstructed 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic virus. Science 2005; 310: 77–80
.
User avatar
bumble
Humankind's Greatest Musical Genius
Humankind's Greatest Musical Genius
 
Posts: 4373
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: chicago

Postby slowriot on Tue Nov 08, 2005 11:14 am

shagboy wrote:
slowriot wrote:normally with viruses, at first the death rate is very high, because only a small sample of the population contracts it.


i think it's actually that a lot of people contract it but don't die from it or get so sick that they need to be hospitalized, so it goes unreported. but i'm definitely not an expert.


if they don't die from it, then it wouldn't make the mortality rate skyrocket. the reason it was so high is because, normally (and i'm no expert so i don't know if this was the case) the first people to contract it are usually very old or very young living in 3rd world areas, and they DO die from it. once it spreads to different countries that have set up protocols, are generally more young and healthy, more people survive, thus lowering the mortality rate.

again, i'm no doctor/scientist, but I don't see how an early mortality rate would be high because people aren't dying...

clarify?
User avatar
slowriot
penguinologist
penguinologist
 
Posts: 1800
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:34 am
Location: i live wherever you live.

Postby Richard on Wed Jan 10, 2007 9:24 am

"Children Of Men" got me thinking about bird flu. It's pretty fucking scary.
Richard
meatball enthusiast
meatball enthusiast
 
Posts: 1275
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:52 am
Location: Suffolk County

Postby Josef K on Wed Jan 10, 2007 9:42 am

My wife was pretty freaked by a documentary recently. We have two young children and basically they covered what would happen if the pandemic occured in Britain and I guess this will be acted out in the rest of the civilised world too.

Apparently, vaccines will be administered to the 20-40 year old age group first as society has invested most in them, eductaion, etc and they are obviously of child bearing age. The other age groups outside that will be further down the pecking order, e.g little children and the elderly.

So we could be in the situation of watching our children and parents die because there is not enough vaccination to go around.

I some ways I'm glad that I live on an Island, but there's no guarantee that we'll be able to control the borders in time to avoid this.

Shit, the NHS just wouldn't cope. A hospital near Glasgow closed it's doors at the weekend beacause of the number of Flu related admissions.

Stay healthy.
gjhardwick wrote:shut up you massive baptist
User avatar
Josef K
Eternal Bosom of Hot Love
Eternal Bosom of Hot Love
 
Posts: 3258
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:36 am

Re: Urggh

Postby alex maiolo on Wed Jan 10, 2007 9:42 pm

joshsolberg wrote:As a person who gets pretty badly fucked up by any flu virus that comes anywhere near me, I'm scared pretty shitless by this. I read that article at work. A coworker noted while I was reading it that I looked "bothered". Fuck yeah, I'm bothered.


My wife's a public health genius, and she's got one word of advice:
Stay home.

Yes, I know it's obvious, but nobody seems to be talking about this.
When/if people start getting sick, call the office and say you're not coming in. Lock the door and don't answer it. Turn on the TV, reacquaint yourself with your DVD collection, practice your scales, and make meals out of whatever is in the house (for dinner: Stove Top Stuffing and peanuts...).

Germs aren't going to sneak in under the door. You don't need a fallout shelter or anything.

That won't save everyone, but the fewer people you pass, doorknobs you touch, money you exchange, etc, the better off you'll be.

-A
dontfeartheringo wrote:If $100 is too much for you to spend on a microphone maybe you should find a new hobby. People like you seem to like Magic: The Gathering a lot.
User avatar
alex maiolo
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
 
Posts: 7367
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 11:47 pm
Location: Chapel Hill NC (please excuse my english)

Postby Richard on Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:03 pm

Josef K wrote: if the pandemic occured in Britain

http://www.associatedcontent.com/articl ... fimed.html
Richard
meatball enthusiast
meatball enthusiast
 
Posts: 1275
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:52 am
Location: Suffolk County

Postby caix on Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:34 pm

Too much hype, really. It's not as terrible as the media hypes it up to be.
I play bass in Fake Limbs.
User avatar
caix
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
 
Posts: 7859
Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:22 pm
Location: Logan Square

Postby clocker bob on Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:31 pm

The Guardian is reporting that the beheading plot details may be a ploy to distract attention from cash-for-honours. Maybe the bird flu and the exploding letter today in London are being exploited as well?
Police investigating the alleged plot to abduct and behead a Muslim soldier expressed growing anger yesterday at a series of leaks and briefings which they say are hampering their inquiry.

Whitehall officials briefed journalists early on Wednesday before all of the suspects had been found, with the result that lurid details of the alleged plot were broadcast while one suspect remained at large. At least one tabloid newspaper had even been tipped off the night before the dawn raids, and its reporters put on standby to race to Birmingham.

Police sources in the West Midlands said yesterday they suspected the anonymous briefings may have been intended to deflect attention from the prisons crisis and the cash for honours inquiry, while counter-terrorism officials in London told the Guardian there was concern that the speculation generated is interfering with the investigation by the newly formed Midlands Counter-Terrorism Unit.

One counter-terrorism official warned yesterday that "an awful lot of inaccuracies" had begun to appear in the media, to the alarm of West Midlands police. "As a result of some of the speculation, police feel they have been hampered in their evidence gathering," he said.
clocker bob
 

Postby Earwicker on Mon Feb 05, 2007 6:29 pm

And all the while I'm sat on the metro and thoughtless ignorant fuckers are coughing and spluttering all over the fucking place!

Bad manners have the potential to kill millions.

PUT YOUR HAND OVER YOUR MOUTH FOR FUCKS SAKE!!!
User avatar
Earwicker
Leader with Extraordinary Personality
Leader with Extraordinary Personality
 
Posts: 2856
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:36 am
Location: House, Newcastle, Great Britain

Postby clocker bob on Mon Feb 05, 2007 9:44 pm

Earwicker wrote:PUT YOUR HAND OVER YOUR MOUTH FOR FUCKS SAKE!!!

News from Daily India about how close we are:
London, Feb 2 (ANI): A new research has revealed that the difference between a flu virus that kills millions, and one that kills only a few comes down to just two amino acid changes.

The finding could allow scientists to stay one step ahead of a H5N1 flu pandemic, by screening for the specific mutations that would enable it to spread.

The article goes on to describe how the protein of the virus binds to sugars in the lungs and nasal passages, and the amino acids are the glue. I think. I'm getting a surgical mask.
clocker bob
 

Postby alpha80 on Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:03 am

Ebola was better.

Still getting a mask.
User avatar
alpha80
thomas paine
thomas paine
 
Posts: 395
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 9:15 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Postby Mazec on Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:15 am

Now all those turkeys in England had to die, and there's still no sign on an apocalypse. Lame.
User avatar
Mazec
Lode Star of the Twenty-First Century
Lode Star of the Twenty-First Century
 
Posts: 2444
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 3:57 am
Location: Hamburg

Postby Rimbaud III on Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:36 pm

I don't know why people aren't shiting themselves about this. Or at least shitting themselves about this more than the threat of a terrorist attack or Iranian nukes taking out Jerusalem.
This is long overdue, and looks set to wipe out massive swathes of the global population. I don't want to die! Not yet at least! I have to do at least one good thing before I pop my clogs or they won't let me into that big ol' member's club in the sky!
User avatar
Rimbaud III
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
Power Incarnate with Endless Creativity
 
Posts: 7572
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 7:38 am
Location: Shortstackistan

Postby Cranius on Thu Feb 08, 2007 2:32 pm

Mike Davis from the Guardian:

The plague of bird flu will erupt out of Java, not Suffolk


The west has failed to back up its rhetoric by helping countries that will be on the front line of any human pandemic

Mike Davis
Wednesday February 7, 2007
The Guardian

Just when most of us thought it was safe to go back into the water (or at least eat chicken and turkey), H5N1 raises its black dorsal fin and reminds us that it has unfinished business with the human race. Although hypotheses abound, virologists have yet to understand avian flu's enigmatic behaviour: burning like a wildfire one season, going to ground the next. However, since the original outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997, one trend remains consistent: after each hibernation or disappearance, H5N1 re-emerges with its virulence intact and its geographical and species ranges extended.

A decade of breakneck research, driven by the fear that another 1918 influenza catastrophe (50-100 million dead in three months, the most murderous event in human history) was close at hand, has provided little solace. The daring laboratory resurrection of the 1918 virus has shown that H5N1 may be only a few amino-acid substitutions away from acquiring transmissibility at pandemic velocity. A pandemic already exists among wild birds and domestic poultry, and we saw a terrifying demonstration of its spreading power during the winter of 2005-06, when outbreaks emerged helter-skelter across western Asia, Europe and Africa - often with little clue as to the source of the infection.

Now H5N1 has resumed its mysterious and seemingly irresistible march with new human victims in China, Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria, and a spectacular outbreak among English factory turkeys that raises troubling questions about the biosafety of the corporate poultry industry.

The World Health Organisation, meanwhile, is grimly mobilising to confront imminent worst-case scenarios. The proposed response remains the same as last year: rely on local early-warning systems to quickly identify sustained human-to-human transmission and then squelch it with massive saturation of the exposed population with the antiviral Tamiflu. This strategy is based on a dubious perfect-world model of pandemic emergence and medical response, and is overwhelmingly contradicted by the WHO's own recent experiences in the field.

In the first place, Roche's wonder-drug Tamiflu is no longer a magic bullet: several recent deaths in Egypt have been attributed to a Tamiflu-resistant strain and this resistance is likely to spread through the larger population of H5N1 subtypes. Second, the elaborate system of outbreak surveillance, immediate poultry slaughter, and isolation of human victims that has been painstakingly established in China, Vietnam and Thailand simply doesn't exist in many areas of recent outbreak, and will never come into being without a massive, urgent international effort.

In most of sub-Saharan Africa, for example, avian flu has simply flown off the radar screen. Nigeria is the current epicentre in the region only because a minimal surveillance effort exists. It is possible that large-scale outbreaks already rage elsewhere among poor Africans' ubiquitous chickens, but we will only know when their children start dying.

Africa's vulnerability to a new pandemic is horrifying, since avian flu would follow the grim furrows already ploughed by HIV/Aids. Infections synergise with one another: a macabre precedent is the case of the Indian subcontinent in 1918, where - thanks to pre-existing famine, malnutrition and malaria - pandemic influenza killed 10-20 million in less than three months.

The prospect of a new plague unleashed in the shantytowns of Lagos, Kinshasa or Nairobi, in other words, is virtually apocalyptic; yet the avian flu researchers I have recently spoken to are more worried about the potential for a global pandemic to erupt first in the suburbs of Jakarta or elsewhere in Java.

Bluntly put, years of heroic work in Vietnam to contain an explosive H5N1 outbreak that most experts feared was the likely pandemic trigger have been more or less annulled by the rampant and preventable spread of the disease across Indonesia's thousands of islands over the past 18 months. This has been a defeat for the WHO's containment strategy. For fear of losing their base of operations in the country, the WHO and other international agencies acquiesced in the Indonesian government's negligent failure to aggressively cull infected birds or to contain the early human outbreaks. Critics of the disastrous and failed campaign were censored and, in the case of the most senior foreign expert on the scene, even purged for leaking details of the fiasco to the international science press.

As a result, H5N1 is ineradicably entrenched in Indonesian poultry and the human toll has steadily increased, with a number of suspicious "family clusters" that suggest limited person-to...#8209;person transmission. Moreover, the virus is killing people within Jakarta itself, where high population densities favour accelerated disease evolution. The recent flood abets the danger. Be more worried, in other words, about the chickens in Java than the turkeys in Suffolk. While it is unnerving to have such a notorious virus unmasked in East Anglia, killer influenza is still most likely to reach London via Heathrow as a result of failed containment efforts elsewhere.

Avian flu will be the first plague in history to be preceded by a vast and lurid advertising campaign; yet despite all the warning signs, the rich countries have entirely failed to back up their rhetoric with sufficient aid to the poor frontline countries, or any genuine effort to develop a "world vaccine".

· Mike Davis is professor of history at the University of California, Irvine, and the author of The Monster at Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu
User avatar
Cranius
World's Greatest Writer
World's Greatest Writer
 
Posts: 10334
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:29 am
Location: Bethnal Green, Tower Hamlets

Postby clocker bob on Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:47 pm

Cranius wrote:In the first place, Roche's wonder-drug Tamiflu is no longer a magic bullet: several recent deaths in Egypt have been attributed to a Tamiflu-resistant strain and this resistance is likely to spread through the larger population of H5N1 subtypes.

Oh, shit. First I'd heard about that.
clocker bob
 

Postby rayj on Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:19 am

In France:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6272574.stm

(yes, I have fallen prey to the RSS feed. Now if I could just figure out how to 'hide' these links...)
User avatar
rayj
Perfect Picture of Wisdom and Boldness
Perfect Picture of Wisdom and Boldness
 
Posts: 3046
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:35 pm
Location: The Scenic Northwest

Postby Rick Reuben on Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:29 pm

Image
In the past week the number of confirmed and suspect H5N1 cases has increased dramatically in Egypt (see satellite map). Following a lull in cases over the summer and fall, the first confirmed H5N1 fatality was reported a week ago, In contrast to the end of last season, when one of seventeen infections were fatal, four of the first five cases have died. The number of suspect cases has also increased steadily in the past several days, including one fatal case in Cairo.
Rick Reuben
 

PreviousNext

Return to Crap / Not Crap

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Anonymous37, Google [Bot] and 13 guests