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Dude: Nate Silver

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Dude: Nate Silver

Person who renders all pundits, talking heads, and self-proclaimed experts useless
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71%
NEEEEEEEEEEERDD!!!!
13
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Total votes : 45

Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby matthew on Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:32 pm

J Temperance wrote:It's hilarious how badly Silver misjudged the Trump phenomenon. Literally every fucking step of the way, Nate's been wrong. By a lot.


Well what's to be expected from a guy who seems to interpret so much in the world as a mere mathematical problem to be solved?
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby yard barf on Fri Jul 22, 2016 7:03 pm

matthew wrote:
J Temperance wrote:It's hilarious how badly Silver misjudged the Trump phenomenon. Literally every fucking step of the way, Nate's been wrong. By a lot.


Well what's to be expected from a guy who seems to interpret so much in the world as a mere mathematical problem to be solved?


Here we go again with FM matthew's "magic is real" gibberish. He believes that people who study odds shouldn't use math.

Unbelievable.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Me Again on Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:31 pm

"Ooops!"
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby prowler on Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:09 am

yeah the only good part i can see right now is watching how Nate&co will explain themselves out of this one.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby pldms on Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:16 am

prowler wrote:yeah the only good part i can see right now is watching how Nate&co will explain themselves out of this one.

After the 2015 UK election result surprise - polls were 6 points out - (and perhaps the Scottish referendum) the National Council for Research Methods did a proper investigation which you can read here.

I think that's the right and classy way to explain yourself out of something.

(We in the UK hope the explanation is silent Trumpers, purely for entertainment value)
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby matthew on Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:31 am

yard barf wrote:
matthew wrote:
J Temperance wrote:It's hilarious how badly Silver misjudged the Trump phenomenon. Literally every fucking step of the way, Nate's been wrong. By a lot.


Well what's to be expected from a guy who seems to interpret so much in the world as a mere mathematical problem to be solved?


Here we go again with FM matthew's "magic is real" gibberish. He believes that people who study odds shouldn't use math.

Unbelievable.


It is one thing to study probability and use mathematics in doing so.

It is quite another thing to dishonestly manipulate one's study of probability for the end of aiding the campaign of a political candidate whom one supports.

It has been quite clear to me for months that Mr. Silver has been doing just this all year long. Based on the outcome of the general election here in the U.S. it would seem his ploy has bitten him hard in the ass.

I think he ought to stick to divining about pro sports and stuff like that. Maybe he should even take up predicting Powerball drawings for a fee. It's a pretty good racket from what I hear, and at least in that case he'd get more acquainted with the deplorables.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Wood Goblin on Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:06 am

You realize that Silver was giving Trump between a one-in-four and one-in-three chance at winning, right? And that he was also writing about how Trump was within a normal polling error's margin of winning, right? Silver was more bullish on Trump than every other poll aggregator and modeler. He though Hillary would win but also published his concerns and caveats while the general public shouted about Hillary's GOTV operation (which truly was good, if not good enough). And it turns out that there was a decent polling error.

Sam Wang, on the other hand, is done.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby jimmy spako on Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:50 am

Can we please be done with fantasy football politics forever now?

Done with the retreat into the last bastions of snarky humor and armchair wonky überhyperanalysis of the horse race? It's pathetic.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby cerebralheadtrip on Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:54 am

J Temperance wrote:It's hilarious how badly Silver misjudged the Trump phenomenon. Literally every fucking step of the way, Nate's been wrong. By a lot.


in fairness, pretty much everyone misjudged Trump. probably his own campaign included. one of the big takeaways from today is that despite all the advances in technology, we are still completely incapable of predicting, or even accurately observing, voter sentiment. the media needs to take a long hard cold look in the mirror because they are routinely missing the biggest elephants in the room. and that means the portrait of reality we as citizens are being presented is fundamentally flawed.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Gramsci on Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:24 pm

Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan has been having an ongoing low level twitter war with Silver for years.

Needless to say, Taleb was right.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Wood Goblin on Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:35 pm

Taleb said that a Trump victory was "very possible."

Which is, um, the same thing Silver said.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Anthony Flack on Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:14 pm

Yeah I have been looking at those numbers all week thinking "30% = extremely fucking possible". Russian roulette with two bullets.

A bit like the predicted possibility that we suffer the worst, most catastrophic projected outcomes for climate change.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Anthony Flack on Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:23 pm

prowler wrote:yeah the only good part i can see right now is watching how Nate&co will explain themselves out of this one.


The only good part I can see is that at least the Clintons can fuck off now.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Angus Jung on Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:07 pm

Anthony Flack wrote:[The only good part I can see is that at least the Clintons can fuck off now.

Not just the Clintons - the whole neoliberal order of the U.S. just got a giant middle finger.
The entire Democratic Party Establishment is finished.
Good article.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby jbrobertson on Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:11 pm

Maybe the real problem is not so much the forecasts themselves -- compare the surprise freak storm in the UK some years back -- as that people trust in the polls too much. That is to say: Did too many Democrats see the huge lead Clinton had in the polls and decide they didn't need to vote? Would more people have voted if the polls didn't exist? From what I have read, it seems Clinton lost not because of some kind of demographic shift or Republican surge but rather because fewer Democratic voters showed up overall. Romney actually got more votes than Trump did, and yet Romney lost.

In any case, I wouldn't be quite so angry if the majority of Americans had voted, instead of only about half.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby prowler on Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:45 am

jimmy spako wrote:Can we please be done with fantasy football politics forever now?

Done with the retreat into the last bastions of snarky humor and armchair wonky überhyperanalysis of the horse race? It's pathetic.

this.

obviously most pundits and aggregators are worse than Silver, but just for a moment let's not grade this on a scale. the simple fact is that there's no point at which 538 "got" Trump.* the numbers and the modelling helped, but they weren't enough.

*judging by the first reaction podcast, they still don't. i should probably unsubscribe...
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby matthew on Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:27 am

prowler wrote:...the simple fact is that there's no point at which 538 "got" Trump.


I think Mr. Silver totally "got" Trump. That's why he campaigned against him using probability and mathematics as his guise so as to sound "detached" and "objective". LOL.

In the end, he's just another goofball who is a discredit to both the study of probability and the field of mathematics. Shame on him.

He might want to move to Ashland, WI or Iron City, MI or East Grand Forks, MN and take bets from the locals on what the Powerball drawing is gonna be.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby jbrobertson on Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:27 pm

There's a good postmortem of the election, including a talk with Nate Silver, on the latest On the Media podcast.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Gramsci on Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:07 am

Wood Goblin wrote:Taleb said that a Trump victory was "very possible."

Which is, um, the same thing Silver said.


No, Silver said is it was highly unlikely but not impossible.

To be fair on Silver he did put his thumbs on the scale of his model a little to make it more conservative (small c). He said so in his podcast. I listened to every one in the lead up to the election and yes, Silver and is colleague said "it's not impossible" but they definitely did not say it was "highly likely"

As for Taleb, his schtick is "never discount anything" based on a very long term view of history and he is deeply distrustful of any "predictive science", especially Economics. I've read all his books and listened to a lot of interviews with him. He is a partial elitist dipshit and oddly enough self describes as a conservative (small c) leftist.

The disagreement Taleb has is with the idea of predictive science in general, not individual results.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Anthony Flack on Wed Nov 16, 2016 4:13 am

Maybe it really was highly unlikely.
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