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Dude: Nate Silver

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Dude: Nate Silver

Person who renders all pundits, talking heads, and self-proclaimed experts useless
32
71%
NEEEEEEEEEEERDD!!!!
13
29%
 
Total votes : 45

Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Chromodynamic on Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:59 pm

jimmy two hands wrote:gah!


This piece and his handling of the criticism may have fatally crippled my appreciation of him.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby steve on Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:51 pm

Tom wrote:Nope. Just was reading them a minute ago. I use adblock and saw them fine, though I'm on chrome. It's a small link underneath the photo of the author at the very bottom of the article, to the left of the "add comment" text.

When I click that I get nothing. Looks like it's trying to load something for a second, then nothing.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby cmay on Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:45 pm

Sounds like you have java turned off or disabled, possibly. Which is likely in the browser settings. The comments box is a dynamic dropdown window, which is what makes me suspect that's the case.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Antero on Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:25 pm

Man, Nate Silver's been really fucking up lately, at least in his choice of contributors.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby jimmy two hands on Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:14 am

Antero wrote:Man, Nate Silver's been really fucking up lately, at least in his choice of contributors.


Troof. The crazy thing is, as the article points out, he hired a guy who is bad at statistics to write an article on a statistics-based website. They've published a rebuttal, but they really should have reviewed the article before it was published.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby steve on Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:12 pm

cmay wrote:Sounds like you have java turned off or disabled, possibly. Which is likely in the browser settings. The comments box is a dynamic dropdown window, which is what makes me suspect that's the case.

Have "always turn on" instruction for the Java add-on. No idea what's up but the site is pretty dull without the comments.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby cmay on Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:30 pm

Ah, looks like comments are using the Facebook Social Plugin in an iFrame (whatever that is). Not sure if having a facebook account is required to see comments. Wouldn't make much sense if that's the case, but it is facebook.

I'd try a different browser. Chrome seems pretty capable with weird plugins like this. I'm using chrome with adblock and I see it fine after clicking the word Comments next to 'Add a comment'.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Andrew. on Mon May 09, 2016 11:53 am

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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby NewDarkAge on Mon May 09, 2016 12:32 pm

Kriss' thing is brilliant.

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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby NewDarkAge on Mon May 09, 2016 1:52 pm

He's a Beckett dude. I think he's at the University of Sussex.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby pldms on Mon May 09, 2016 2:06 pm

Andrew. wrote:https://samkriss.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/on-the-stupidity-of-nate-silver/

Oh dear, not Sam Kriss. He's Mary Midgley for the Vice generation.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Jen on Mon May 09, 2016 2:58 pm

smud wrote:


This guy, whoever he is, is fucking awesome. I have so much due this week and here I am, laughing my ass off at this blog instead. Who is he?

This quote is outstanding:

"Neil deGrasse Tyson is, supposedly, an educator and a populariser of science; it’s his job to excite people about the mysteries of the universe, communicate information, and correct popular misconceptions. This is a noble, arduous, and thankless job, which might be why he doesn’t do it."


I stayed home from a political meeting tonight because I have so much shit to do, and instead I just spent an indeterminate amount of time reading this guy's archives. The article on quitting Twitter is fucking brilliant.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Wood Goblin on Mon May 09, 2016 3:02 pm

Tell you what: you guys follow "Carl Diggler's" predictions, and I'll follow Silver's. We'll settle our accounts in, say, ten years.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Yngwie Einstein on Mon May 09, 2016 3:06 pm

Andrew. wrote:https://samkriss.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/on-the-stupidity-of-nate-silver/


That piece reminded me of this.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby prowler on Tue May 10, 2016 8:41 am

Tom wrote:with the exception of the MI dem primary, their state by state forecasts have been dead on.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... emocratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... emocratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... emocratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... emocratic/ (switched 2 days before)

lol as I'm writing this post, they just changed the Utah page
Image
you'll have to trust me, before it had Bernie jumping to 51% in the last 2 days before the primary. who knows how many others they retroactively changed, obviously a CONSPIRACY.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby prowler on Wed May 11, 2016 6:40 am

Tom wrote:


Yeah, Michigan was fucked up, and Indiana wasn't great, but Utah and Oklahoma were pretty good. Each of those were about 50/50 odds that Sanders would win and he did. In Indiana's case, he said Sanders had a 1 in 10 shot of winning. Not great odds, but not the worst either. Michigan was the only one that I'd consider implausible based on the odds he gave it.

The point with Ok and Ut is that all the way up to 2 days before the election they weren't giving 50/50 odds, it was more like 70/30 for Hillary.
Not to mention a bunch of other cases where their "prediction" was around 51/49 -- what's the point in even publishing that? Just say your model doesn't have any predictive claims in this case.

And what's with them constantly revising these "prediction" pages? For past elections their pages shouldn't be "updated daily" :roll:
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Gramsci on Wed May 11, 2016 10:58 am

phpBB [media]
clocker bob may 30, 2006 wrote:I think the possibility of interbreeding between an earthly species and an extraterrestrial species is as believable as any other explanation for the existence of George W. Bush.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Auntie Ovipositor on Wed May 11, 2016 1:51 pm

Gramsci wrote:
phpBB [media]

This is the dumbest.

I'm constantly amazed how people can see an articulate discussion of probabilities and statistical likelihoods and equate it with punditry. Or to say that because things didn't go the way the polls forecast in a given instance it's obviously just made up bullshit.

I love my mother, but she believes in acupuncture and chiropractic and Chinese medicine and all forms of magic. She does this exact same thing whenever a medical diagnosis is wrong - "SEE! SEE! THEY THINK THEY KNOW EVERYTHING BUT IT'S NOT TRUE BECAUSE THEY SAID IT WAS CARPAL TUNNEL BUT IT'S ACTUALLY A PINCHED NERVE IN MY NECK! THEY DON'T KNOW ANYTHING I'M GOING TO LET MY AROMATHERAPIST HEAL THIS FOR ME BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW ANYTHING!"
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby the finger genius on Wed May 11, 2016 3:56 pm

TL:DW

I think the criticism is more that there were polls indicating trump could win the nomination and silver didn't really buy many of those polls.
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Re: Dude: Nate Silver

Postby Auntie Ovipositor on Wed May 11, 2016 4:30 pm

the finger genius wrote:TL:DW

I think the criticism is more that there were polls indicating trump could win the nomination and silver didn't really buy many of those polls.


Links to those polls? Because they do show their work at 538, and show why they weight them the way that they do. Which does not mean they cannot be wrong in their forecasts or in their weighting of polls (far from it), but does show the statistical analysis that they are using to structure those forecasts.

There's a difference between being wrong and having your thumb on the scale.
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