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2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

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Elizabeth Warren

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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Clyde on Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:30 am

andteater wrote:
Clyde wrote:
154 wrote: Sanders' populism is offset by people who continue to see him as a spoiler, and baffling moves like making a speech over a black woman isn't doing him any favors..


Just to be clear, this didn't happen. Sanders has been giving his own response to the SOTU for three years running now. It's done after the official Democratic response and until now has not been an issue.
https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1 ... 5141249030


that is 100% true. however, that doesn't matter. if Bernie has a problem with black women, that move certainly didn't help him.

I believe his favorable ratings have been at or near the top of any politician for two plus years now, and he has consistently polled better with women than men and with people of color than whites. His problem with black women seems to largely a media narrative.

andteater wrote: furthermore, not to get all Bernie on you all, but i think that his 2020 run will definitely be different than 2016, as he will have to fight off a few real potential stars as opposed to one person who already had half the country hating her.


I have no idea how it will all play out but I agree the dynamic will be different.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:12 pm

Clyde wrote:
andteater wrote:
Clyde wrote:
154 wrote: Sanders' populism is offset by people who continue to see him as a spoiler, and baffling moves like making a speech over a black woman isn't doing him any favors..


Just to be clear, this didn't happen. Sanders has been giving his own response to the SOTU for three years running now. It's done after the official Democratic response and until now has not been an issue.
https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1 ... 5141249030


that is 100% true. however, that doesn't matter. if Bernie has a problem with black women, that move certainly didn't help him.

I believe his favorable ratings have been at or near the top of any politician for two plus years now, and he has consistently polled better with women than men and with people of color than whites. His problem with black women seems to largely a media narrative.


Largely a media narrative created by the media looking at the numbers in 2016:

"Mr. Sanders fought Mrs. Clinton to a draw among white voters, exit polls showed. But he was trounced among nonwhites, who cast four in 10 votes. The decisive edge for Mrs. Clinton: She won African-Americans by more than 50 percentage points."

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/how-clinton-won/
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Clyde on Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:22 pm

andteater wrote:
Clyde wrote:
andteater wrote:
Clyde wrote:
154 wrote: Sanders' populism is offset by people who continue to see him as a spoiler, and baffling moves like making a speech over a black woman isn't doing him any favors..


Just to be clear, this didn't happen. Sanders has been giving his own response to the SOTU for three years running now. It's done after the official Democratic response and until now has not been an issue.
https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1 ... 5141249030


that is 100% true. however, that doesn't matter. if Bernie has a problem with black women, that move certainly didn't help him.

I believe his favorable ratings have been at or near the top of any politician for two plus years now, and he has consistently polled better with women than men and with people of color than whites. His problem with black women seems to largely a media narrative.


Largely a media narrative created by the media looking at the numbers in 2016:

"Mr. Sanders fought Mrs. Clinton to a draw among white voters, exit polls showed. But he was trounced among nonwhites, who cast four in 10 votes. The decisive edge for Mrs. Clinton: She won African-Americans by more than 50 percentage points."

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/how-clinton-won/

You see that these two things are not equivalent, right? You're only given one vote. Voting for Clinton =/= disliking Sanders. There are tons of reasons why Clinton trounced Sanders including her locking up party leadership endorsements and name recognition. As Sanders name recognition has grown, so has his favorable rating, including among African-Americans.

Remember that in 2008 Obama absolutely dominated Clinton among black voters.

The Washington Post wrote:Obama has swamped Clinton among black voters in each of the 20 contests that had exit polls and large enough samples of African Americans to be meaningful. Just to put that kind of shutout in perspective, black voters represent the only demographic group that the New York senator has not carried at least once during the Democratic primary campaign. Obama now has such a lock on the loyalties of African Americans -- 84 percent of the black vote in Alabama, 87 percent in Georgia, 84 percent in Maryland, and on and on -- that the black vote is no longer contestable.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02364.html

And yet she and did very well with them in 2016 (and this despite running a despicable and actually racist campaign in 2008.)

In other words, there is nothing here that points to Sanders having a problem with black voters. If you want to make a case that as a block black voters are more likely to vote for Biden or Harris or whomever, fine, go ahead and make it but that's a different argument.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:14 pm

Clyde wrote:In other words, there is nothing here that points to Sanders having a problem with black voters. If you want to make a case that as a block black voters are more likely to vote for Biden or Harris or whomever, fine, go ahead and make it but that's a different argument.


As of right now, the only gauge we have of him by the black voting base is the 2016 primary. It obviously can't be his Senate runs because his state is 95% white. He was running heads up against a brutal candidate who had run a racist campaign in 2008 among various other awful stories and he got trounced by her.

So yes, of course the next time around he could win the majority of the black vote. But consider me skeptical.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Clyde on Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:50 pm

andteater wrote:
Clyde wrote:In other words, there is nothing here that points to Sanders having a problem with black voters. If you want to make a case that as a block black voters are more likely to vote for Biden or Harris or whomever, fine, go ahead and make it but that's a different argument.


As of right now, the only gauge we have of him by the black voting base is the 2016 primary. It obviously can't be his Senate runs because his state is 95% white. He was running heads up against a brutal candidate who had run a racist campaign in 2008 among various other awful stories and he got trounced by her.

So yes, of course the next time around he could win the majority of the black vote. But consider me skeptical.


No, we also have the gauge of favorable ratings among non-white voters, in which Sanders performs consistently at or near the top.

https://gritpost.com/bernie-sanders-approval-nonwhite/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/243539/ame ... nders.aspx
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017 ... ie-sanders
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/9 ... 72?lang=en

Again, when Sanders began his 2016 campaign, his familiarity among African-American voters was something like 30% vs Clinton's whose numbers were near 100%. As familiarity with Sanders has grown, so have his approval numbers. Whether that will translate into votes is a matter of speculation--and nobody has any idea how the 2020 primary will play out--but, again, that is different than saying that he has a problem among black voters. The evidence suggests otherwise.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:40 pm

Wood Goblin wrote:Andrew, I largely agree. But this issue has been mentioned in every single article about Warren. Do you think that’s because the press is suddenly concerned about giving a voice to the Cherokee Nation?


Obviously not. But you said it was a "bullshit transgression" rather than a serious one. I disagree.

It was a serious transgression that has given rise to the largest "discussion" of Indigenous identity in the USA in years, on the worst possible terms. Totally avoidable as Rebecca Nagle says. Warren is a Harvard professor. Ignorance is a tough excuse for her to not have done the right thing rather than trying to deploy racial pseudo-science as a "gotcha" to Trump on her way to the presidency. It was a moronic, self-interested, and colonial thing to do, and that matters as much or as little as you value what Native Americans say about it and the impact it has on them.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:59 pm

It was definitely dumb, but it clearly wasn’t done out of malice. She has apologized for it several times, and those apologies were sincere. As an issue, it’s done.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:02 pm

I mean, at this point, what more can she do?
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:22 pm

Wood Goblin wrote:I mean, at this point, what more can she do?


i think that the entire escapade encapsulates the issue with her. she's clearly a smart woman i'm certain that the majority of people on the left agree with her politics. but she's just a fucking boomer that is clueless when it comes to presenting herself. she took Trump's bait and tried to one up him when clearly nothing she could do in that regard would come off looking good to anyone with a brain.

see that video of her looking relaxed around the house, drinking a beer? for all we know, she was very relaxed and enjoying that beer, but it just looks...awkward. forced. uncomfortable.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Redline on Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:30 pm

Wood Goblin wrote:It was definitely dumb, but it clearly wasn’t done out of malice. She has apologized for it several times, and those apologies were sincere. As an issue, it’s done.

As more documents surface showing the "American Indian" box checked, Elizabeth Warren will have to back down before one or more of the presidential hopefuls in the Democratic Party dispatch her themselves.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:54 am

andteater wrote:
Wood Goblin wrote:I mean, at this point, what more can she do?


i think that the entire escapade encapsulates the issue with her. she's clearly a smart woman i'm certain that the majority of people on the left agree with her politics. but she's just a fucking boomer that is clueless when it comes to presenting herself. she took Trump's bait and tried to one up him when clearly nothing she could do in that regard would come off looking good to anyone with a brain.

see that video of her looking relaxed around the house, drinking a beer? for all we know, she was very relaxed and enjoying that beer, but it just looks...awkward. forced. uncomfortable.


so in the past week i've seen her at rallies and i think i need to amend my statement regarding how she presents herself. i stand by the awkwardness of her attempts of seeming like an everyday american, however, when talking to crowds i do realize she is much better than i originally perceived.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby llllllllllllllllllllllll on Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:47 pm

She’s alright but would I straight up fuckin DIE for her?! Ehh. No. Not by a long shot. Bernie it is.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:51 pm

llllllllllllllllllllllll wrote:She’s alright but would I straight up fuckin DIE for her?!


wat
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby DrAwkward on Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:55 pm

llllllllllllllllllllllll wrote:She’s alright but would I straight up fuckin DIE for her?! Ehh. No. Not by a long shot. Bernie it is.


If that were the requirement i would never vote.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby tmidgett on Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:00 pm

I like her a lot, but I don't think she can win.

There's a perception that she's inauthentic, and like it or not (I don't like it), it's taken hold.

Being regarded as inauthentic is the one true kiss of fuckin' death if you're running for president. You can be any number of things, but people think you're kind of a fake, yer done.

George Bush was the phoniest president of my lifetime. Made it in by running on racism (Willie Horton) and making Dukakis seem like the hugest nerd ever to run for office (not tough). Nothing wins over apolitical rubes like race-based fear and a hatred of nerds.

Then he had to go against WJC, whose great political talent allowed him to present as completely authentic, even though he's a piece of shit basically. Plus had to contend with Perot, who was nothing if not authentic. And he could no longer get over the hump.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby DrAwkward on Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:17 pm

tmidgett wrote:I like her a lot, but I don't think she can win.

There's a perception that she's inauthentic, and like it or not (I don't like it), it's taken hold.

Being regarded as inauthentic is the one true kiss of fuckin' death if you're running for president. You can be any number of things, but people think you're kind of a fake, yer done.

George Bush was the phoniest president of my lifetime. Made it in by running on racism (Willie Horton) and making Dukakis seem like the hugest nerd ever to run for office (not tough). Nothing wins over apolitical rubes like race-based fear and a hatred of nerds.

Then he had to go against WJC, whose great political talent allowed him to present as completely authentic, even though he's a piece of shit basically. Plus had to contend with Perot, who was nothing if not authentic. And he could no longer get over the hump.


You're right, of course, but i absolutely hate all of this.

George W Bush - biggest fakey fake fake of all time. You're a rough 'n' tumble Texas rancher? My fucking ass! But because he mispronounced "nuclear" he was someone you could have a beer with. Fucksake.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Angus Jung on Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:28 pm

I'm not sure there's a big perception out there that Elizabeth Warren is inauthentic.

I think she is authentically a rather socially awkward, nerdy person. When she comes off that way, like on the announcement video where she drinks a beer (kind of pathetically trying to piggyback on AOC's masterful use of social media to address constituents in a direct way)...I don't think that was awkward because she was pretending to be different than she is. It was awkward because she really is awkward. Which, IMO, people are okay with.

I also don't think her super-lame Native American DNA test debacle is going to be a huge deal during the campaign. Maybe it should be, but I'm betting it isn't.

She recently unveiled a universal child-care proposal that is worth looking at.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Angus Jung on Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:36 pm

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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:35 am

Tim is right about the perception of authenticity, but I agree with Angus that she is being authentic—authentically awkward.

I’ll also add that, for the Beltway press, “authenticity” means ability to conform to gender norms. It’s about playing the role well. And it helps if you’re conventionally attractive. Nobody questioned Sarah Palin’s authenticity, even thought that Redneck Woman (TM) dressed herself in Neiman Marcus outifts that cost more than most people earn in a month. And I guarantee that NOBODY will question Tulsi Gabbard’s authenticity,
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby cneutron on Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:21 pm

Wood Goblin wrote:Tim is right about the perception of authenticity, but I agree with Angus that she is being authentic—authentically awkward.

I’ll also add that, for the Beltway press, “authenticity” means ability to conform to gender norms. It’s about playing the role well. And it helps if you’re conventionally attractive. Nobody questioned Sarah Palin’s authenticity, even thought that Redneck Woman (TM) dressed herself in Neiman Marcus outifts that cost more than most people earn in a month. And I guarantee that NOBODY will question Tulsi Gabbard’s authenticity,


Interesting take, but not one that can be dismissed. Gillibrand and Harris as well.
I think you see a little of this with male candidates (Beto), but telegenic generally means attractive, yes.

It sucks, I like Warren. A Lot. I was a fan years before she went into the Senate. She's not just good, she's absolutely great.

I'd rather her be the Senate Majority Leader than Schumer! I think she's tough and smart enough and would be incredible at it. I think her time for President was 2016 and she let the pitch sail past.

I really hate to say that, but unless she gets shit together really quickly I think her campaign will be eclipsed fairly quickly by other candidates.

As of right now, she's my strong second though.
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