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2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

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Elizabeth Warren

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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:26 am

Image

Well, Volcker did believe in "big, structural change" -- to crush the working class.

As Federal Reserve chair under Reagan and Carter, he destroyed millions of working-class jobs and pushed a radical neoliberal program.


https://jacobinmag.com/2019/12/paul-ado ... erve-chair
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:02 am

I don’t agree with Henwood AT ALL about this. He’s eliding a lot of details about the 1970s, including the most important one—the toxic mix of loose money and price controls under Nixon that caused/worsened the crisis in the first place. Volcker’s response caused a lot of pain in the short term, but it worked in the long term, and there wasn’t another, better option on the table.

Incidentally, real median personal income dropped from 1974 (where the time series begins) until 1981, when it began to rise before finally stagnating in 2000. Real median household
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:02 am

I don’t agree with Henwood AT ALL about this. He’s eliding a lot of details about the 1970s, including the most important one—the toxic mix of loose money and price controls under Nixon that caused/worsened the crisis in the first place. Volcker’s response caused a lot of pain in the short term, but it worked in the long term, and there wasn’t another, better option on the table.

Incidentally, real median personal income dropped from 1974 (where the time series begins) until 1981, when it began to rise before finally stagnating in 2000. Real median household
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:04 am

. . . income also rose (with some volatility) from the early 80s until 2000, when it began to stagnate and then drop.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:14 am

While reading about Volcker, I was reminded that a couple big unions, including the Teamsters, endorsed Reagan. And a lot of the Reagan White House HATED Volcker and wanted Reagan to can him.

The 1980s were a weird time.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:16 pm

My replies above, now that I look at them again, seem messy, so I’ll try again.

• Everything I said about Volcker, I stand by. There’s no indication that his chemotherapy for inflation caused a longer-term decline in the power or health of the working class. In fact, it’s difficult to see even what the mechanism for this result would be. Inflation hurt the working classes as much as it hurt anyone else, and there’s no evidence that the high-inflation 70s yielded any real gains in income for anyone. Subtract out the effect of inflation, and you see no gains in personal income whatsoever. That changed after the intervention.

• The real decline in working-class America doesn’t accelerate until mix later, and it’s a culmination of a number of causes. It’s also a truly bi-artisan effort. (Well done, Carter and Clinton!) What’s weird is the degree to which labor contributed to its own demise. I’ve insisted many times that the whole “labor first!” approach to politics is naive. Labor may hate our Capitalist Overlords, but it hates hippies, environmentalists, and minorities more.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:23 pm

(I keep accidentally submitting things too soon.)

• The biggest cause of the decline in blue-collar manufacturing work is automation, and the data confirm this. China played a role, too. To some degree, this has been offset by a rise in transportation and warehousing work. (The latter sucks and pays poorly; the former is actually pretty good blue-collar work, at least in terms of wages, at the long-distance level.)

• You can measure the quality of a Jacobin article by when the term “neoliberal” appears. If it doesn’t appear, or only appears at the end, the article is likely to be good. In the middle? The article will be so-so. In Henwood’s piece, it’s right at the start.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:41 am

Wood Goblin wrote:(I keep accidentally submitting things too soon.)

• The biggest cause of the decline in blue-collar manufacturing work is automation, and the data confirm this. China played a role, too. To some degree, this has been offset by a rise in transportation and warehousing work. (The latter sucks and pays poorly; the former is actually pretty good blue-collar work, at least in terms of wages, at the long-distance level.)

• You can measure the quality of a Jacobin article by when the term “neoliberal” appears. If it doesn’t appear, or only appears at the end, the article is likely to be good. In the middle? The article will be so-so. In Henwood’s piece, it’s right at the start.


People can read the Henwood piece and assess the argument for themselves. Henwood wrote a well regarded book on Wall St and knows his way around monetary policy. He's right about Volcker.

The only time the word "neoliberal" appears in the article is once in the last paragraph, btw. You're looking at the dek. Editors write those, not the writer.

Here's a longer piece on Volcker by way of a review of his memoir (zero use of the word "neoliberal"):

Another way to zap consumer price inflation it is to create a recession and intentionally drive up unemployment. If workers are too weak to bargain and too broke to spend, prices will eventually come down. Seen this way, the politics of inflation become about nothing less than the distribution of the national income — or, as the Cambridge economist Joan Robinson put it in 1976, inflation is an “expression of class struggle.” It is no coincidence that the middle part of the twentieth century was the only time in US history when consumer price inflation was a pressing issue: it was only during the heyday of the New Deal order that the working class had the power to make it one.


Through the Volcker Shock, as it is now remembered, the Federal Reserve didn’t just opt for the recessionary approach. It did so in the harshest way possible. Instead of adjusting short-term interest rates — which the Fed could do with some precision through conventional measures — Volcker took the radical step of contracting the total money supply, which effectively translated into the central bank encouraging interest rates to soar without any regard for their deleterious effects. In practice, it involved the Fed using its power to limit the growth in commercial bank deposits, which in turn reduced the amount of lending and by extension the amount of money in circulation. This was a page right out of Friedman’s monetarist textbook.


AFL-CIO president Lane Kirkland, for his part, pleaded that Volcker worry about inflation only after the economy recovered. But these complaints fell on deaf ears. And that was because Volcker had no reason to listen. Moreover, as Leo Panitch and Sam Gindin have put it, the Volcker Shock “was not so much about finding the right monetary policy as shifting the balance of class forces in American society.” People were supposed to be pissed.

A few additional highlights from Volcker’s tenure as Fed Chair underscore Panitch and Gindin’s point. In late 1979, when Chrysler was on the brink of bankruptcy, Volcker stepped in to hash out an agreement with its stakeholders, including the United Auto Workers, intended to keep the company afloat. The resulting deal forced the autoworkers — not for the last time — to pay for the mistakes of their bosses, and it became a model for the rest of corporate America: the UAW accepted a disastrous two-tier contract that would soon become a template in other industries. Volcker recounts with some pride that UAW president Doug Fraser later called him “the toughest negotiating counterparty he ever had.” And the UAW wasn’t the only union with whom Volcker had beef. He thought organized labor was in large part responsible for the stagflation of the 1970s, which is why the monetarist class offensive was necessary in the first place. But he at least had the humility to share some of the credit for vanquishing inflation: “one important but little-recognized contribution to the fight against inflation,” Volcker notes, was Ronald Reagan’s decision to fire thousands of striking air-traffic controllers in 1981, a watershed moment in the modern history of anti-unionism.


During the Mexican debt crisis of the mid-1980s, Volcker also played a central role in crafting the structural adjustment programs that the IMF and World Bank would soon export around the world. Seemingly unconcerned with the impact his own monetarist policies at the Fed had on the ability of states in the Global South to service sovereign debt, he and his counterparts used the opportunity created by the financial panic that began in Mexico and spread across Latin America to impose a program of austerity that intensified inequality in the region.


https://jacobinmag.com/2018/12/paul-vol ... ntral-bank
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby llllllllllllllllllllllll on Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:26 pm

Fuck every member of Elizabeth Warren’s harebrained staff.
llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm

llllllllllllllllllllllll wrote:Fuck every member of Elizabeth Warren’s harebrained staff.


They're fucking themselves.
https://twitter.com/danieldenvir/status ... 3838694403?

My rewrite of this tweet would be: "News cycle began w some document from Bernieland volunteers w talking points that underline strategic case for Bernie since Warren's base is much more elite. It's ending w Warren's camp smearing Sanders as sexist and echoing HRC's charge that he divided the party in 16. Seems gross and desperate."
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby nihil on Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:46 pm

Andrew. wrote:
llllllllllllllllllllllll wrote:Fuck every member of Elizabeth Warren’s harebrained staff.


They're fucking themselves.
https://twitter.com/danieldenvir/status ... 3838694403?

My rewrite of this tweet would be: "News cycle began w some document from Bernieland volunteers w talking points that underline strategic case for Bernie since Warren's base is much more elite. It's ending w Warren's camp smearing Sanders as sexist and echoing HRC's charge that he divided the party in 16. Seems gross and desperate."


Exactly.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:36 am

The Warren camp should know better than to try to play a cynical short game w someone w such a long and principled game.

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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:22 pm

My feeling is that both sides are telling the truth here. Sanders probably pointed out (quite reasonably) how much misogyny Warren would face, and Warren probably heard (quite reasonably) discouragement from her future opponent.

By the way, that sentiment—that a woman can’t win—appeared on this very forum, more than once, and the person(s) who said it was a Sanders supported taking specifically about Warren. (I’m thinking of one post in particular, but there might be more than one.)

On a different subject, I’m disgusted with how this primary is going, Warren and Sanders are both tremendous candidates. Both represent the greatest hopes we have for progress. (And both would inevitably disappoint their supporters should they win. Probably by a lot.)

The constant sniping is bullshit, and I’m aware that I’ve contributed to it as much as anyone else. None of us should be elevating minor differences into major ones. Because it’s causing a serious problem, at least among the extremely online: Sanders supporters are directing all of their energy in tearing down Warren, and vice-versa. (Jacobin has been especially awful in this regard, as has Lawyers, Guns, and Money.) It’s really dumb. “Sanders was too vague here!” “Warren didn’t use exactly perfect phrasing in her latest tweet!”

I support Warren strongly, but I would be delighted if Sanders got the nomination. It’s time I started acting like it.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby m3kcomp on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:52 am

Someone needs to be a pretty vile person for me to refuse to shake their hand. I feel like Warren's choice to avoid Bernie's handshake after the debate was petty and reflects badly on her as an adult, never mind an adult running for president.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Andrew. on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:02 am

Question: Didn't Sanders encourage Warren to run for the Democratic nominee for 2016, only launching his campaign after she decided not to run against Hillary?

It is reasonable to evaluate candidates on their character and their track record. That's part of the purpose of having a nomination process, presumably. And it is OK to believe an old Jewish man over an old white woman who pretended to be Native American throughout her life.

There is a credibility gap that has been driven into the foreground by Warren and her camp. They're shooting themselves in the foot and poisoning the nomination process.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Angus Jung on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:07 am

Andrew. wrote:It is reasonable to evaluate candidates on their character and their track record.

There was that weird moment in last night's debate when Warren talked about herself and Klobuchar being the only people who had beaten Republicans in the last 30 years, and Bernie mentioned that he defeated a Republican in 1990.

He could have also mentioned the fact that in 1990, when he was creating the Progressive Caucus, Warren was a hardcore Republican giving speeches to the Federalist Society.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby andteater on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:12 am

i love you guys
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:21 am

I don’t get it. 1990 was 30 years ago.

Do we really want to get into this tit-for-tat stuff again? Yes, Warren misrepresented her heritage based on family folklore. And Sanders voted for the infamous Clinton crime bill. And Warren. And Sanders. And Warren. And Sanders.
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Boombats on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:27 am

m3kcomp wrote:Someone needs to be a pretty vile person for me to refuse to shake their hand. I feel like Warren's choice to avoid Bernie's handshake after the debate was petty and reflects badly on her as an adult, never mind an adult running for president.

Oh jeez, what happened? I haven't seen the debate
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Re: 2020 Trump Opponent: Elizabeth Warren

Postby Wood Goblin on Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:31 am

(FWIW, in the context of the 1990s, I don’t think a vote for the Clinton crime bill was obviously wrong.)
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